Between 550 and 1,750 people in New Brunswick could die from COVID-19 over the next 18 to 24 months, until a vaccine is available, according to projections released by the province Thursday.
The modelling data also shows up to 5,600 people could have died had the province not implemented public health measures.
“Early indications are that our discipline, our early decisions on closing schools and social distancing and staying at home, have benefitted New Brunswickers significantly. However, we have to stay doing what we’re doing. We have to stay on top of it,” said Health Minister Ted Flemming during a media briefing.
“The wrong gathering with the wrong people could blow these numbers apart in less than a week,” he said.
Flemming said the provincial modelling scenarios are based on the experience of Italy as a worst-case scenario.
He said they project a “best-case” scenario of 15 deaths by the end of April, but there could be as many as 132 deaths under a worst-case scenario.
“I hope I’m wrong,” said Flemming. “The better New Brunswickers can do, the more likely we are to push that number down.”
Flemming says they are projecting a "best-case scenario" of 15 deaths between now and the end of April. "I hope I'm wrong. The better New Brunswickers do, the more likely we can to push that number down," he said. pic.twitter.com/e6AZdP7NQK
— Brad Perry (@BradMPerry) April 9, 2020
The current trajectory suggests there could be 28 people in hospital on April 30. That number could peak at 194 patients in a worst-case scenario.
The number of patients requiring admission to an intensive care unit, currently projected to rise to 13 by the end of the month, could peak at 84 under the worst-case scenario.
Based on the current modelling, Flemming said, “no one will be without a bed given the worst-case scenario.”
Officials said Thursday it will take at least two more weeks of data before they can project when the pandemic may peak.
