A new poll suggested support for New Brunswick’s Liberal government is dropping.
But Susan Holt would likely remain premier if an election were held today.
Porter O’Brien, a Fredericton-based consultancy firm, released the results of its semi-annual public opinion poll on Tuesday.
It’s the first time the firm has released the results to the public.
The big takeaway is this: Premier Holt’s Liberals hold a lead among decided voters, but it’s narrowing.
The poll suggested Liberals have 43 per cent of decided voters backing them, with the Progressive Conservatives at 39 per cent, the Greens at 13 per cent and other parties at five per cent.
For the Liberals, it’s a six-point drop since Porter O’Brien’s fall 2025 poll.
In fact, the PCs have also seen a slight drop in support among decided voters, down one point.
Only the Greens saw their support move in a positive direction, up five points since last fall.
The only larger increase was in the number of undecided voters, up to 21 per cent from 14 per cent in the fall.
When broken down by regions, the Liberals hold narrow leads in Greater Fredericton (43-40) and Greater Saint John (47-43).
The lead is more substantial in the Greater Moncton area (60-28) and rural francophone regions (57-24).
The only area where the PCs have a lead is in rural anglophone regions. They’re at 51 per cent of the decided vote, while the Liberals have just 24 per cent.
Porter O’Brien surveyed 802 New Brunswickers aged 18 and up between May 27 and June 3.
The survey used a “mixed-mode approach,” including 402 respondents recruited through a blend of double opt-in representative panels and another 400 recruited through text-to-web/SMS sampling.
Because the survey was conducted online, a margin of error is not applicable.
Porter O’Brien said a poll conducted in more traditional fashion would be considered accurate to +/- 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
